Is consumer spend weakening or holding up?
On 25 May, the Office of National Statistics announced that household spending had slumped to its lowest rate in nearly two years, underlining the sluggishness of Britain’s economy. The weakness in consumer spending had begun even before the public spending cuts had kicked in, fuelling expectations that the Bank of England will not rush to raise interest rates in coming months, despite high inflation.

Yesterday the Nationwide Building Society said hot weather, a string of bank holidays and the royal wedding created a feel good factor that boosted consumer confidence last month. And although the Nationwide said consumer sentiment remained lower than in May 2010, it said the 11-point increase in confidence last month was one of the highest since the survey began in 2004.
And today IMRG Capgemini revealed in its latest e-Retail Sales Index that online spend in May jumped 18% year on year to £5.3bn. The figure equates to £86 per person and is 2% higher than in April. A total of £25.7bn has been spent online so far in 2011.
Despite the mixed messages emerging from these surveys, what is evident is that a number of high street retailers are in a fix, and the uncertainty about what the consumer may, or may not, do next is not helping. Administrators have been called in at Officers Club, Oddbins and Focus DIY in the past two months. And Game Group saw nearly 15 per cent wiped off its market capitalisation yesterday after it posted weak sales.
This time last year, retailers held their breath hoping that the England team would have an extended run in the World Cup. Despite what happened on the pitch the high street fared better with retail sales increasing by 0.7%. However, halfway through June 2011, there is no ‘big thing’ for retailers to look forward to, which makes matters even more difficult while consumer behaviour is so unpredictable.


